No clear lean · Research notes

Over 37.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 40.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.8 → latest five: 6.6 targets/game. Change: -2.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus37.5-115-115
FD ↗37.5-114-114
Novig ↗37.5-113-113
FAN40.5-105-140
CZR37.5-115-114
DK37.5-112-112
MGM ↗40.5-111-120
PIN37.5-114-114
PP ↗36.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets28
Target share18%
Catch %79%
Yds / rec8.5
Season 2026: 22 rec · 187 yds · red-zone targets 6 (18% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CAR74311
2026 · W3NYJ87653
2026 · W2BUF86611
2026 · W1NO55302
2025 · W18CHI53331
2025 · W17MIN32230
2025 · W16PIT1310661
2025 · W15LA74200
2025 · W14DAL77773
2025 · W13GB43180