Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 7.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 7.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

3 quoted books: 7.5–9.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.8 → latest five: 1.4 opportunities/game. Change: -79.4%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	BAL	13	2	1
2026-09-27	NYG	0	1	0
2026-09-20	PHI	25	2	2
2025-11-16	HOU	13	1	1
2025-10-12	LV	18	1	1
2025-10-05	ARI	47	10	5
2025-09-28	HOU	22	3	2
2025-09-21	IND	27	7	1
2025-09-14	LAR	26	6	3
2025-09-07	DEN	13	8	4

Compare books

fanduel · Over 7.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 9.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

draftkings · Under 9.5 (-113)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 7.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET