Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 65.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 65.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 65.5–69.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.2 → latest five: 6.6 targets/game. Change: -8.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus68.5-127-115
FD ↗68.5-114-114
FAN65.5-125-120
Novig ↗68.5-113-113
CZR68.5-117-113
HRB68.5-115-115
DK69.5-110-114
MGM ↗68.5-115-115
PP ↗69.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗69.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets22
Target share22%
Catch %82%
Yds / rec19.6
Season 2026: 18 rec · 352 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4TEN1081181
2026 · W3DAL65840
2026 · W1IND651501
2025 · W18PIT641382
2025 · W17GB54301
2025 · W16NE77841
2025 · W15CIN53681
2025 · W14PIT1181240
2025 · W13CIN7260
2025 · W12NYJ65580