No clear lean · Research notes

Over 23.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 26.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.6 → latest five: 4 targets/game. Change: +150%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus25.5-137-137
FD ↗25.5-114-114
FAN25.5-110-135
DK24.5-114-110
CZR25.5-115-113
PIN23.5-117-113
B36526.5-116-116
HRB24.5-120-110
Novig ↗25.5-115-117
PP ↗25.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets17
Target share14%
Catch %53%
Yds / rec9.1
Season 2026: 9 rec · 82 yds · red-zone targets 2 (13% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4BUF32150
2026 · W3JAX51380
2026 · W2PIT2190
2026 · W1SEA75200
2025 · W18MIA32290
2025 · W17NYJ21100
2025 · W16BAL2160
2025 · W15BUF0000
2025 · W13NYG33330
2025 · W12CIN11370