Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 18.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 18.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 18.5–19.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.4 → latest five: 5.2 opportunities/game. Change: -29.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	NYJ	37	7	6
2026-09-29	PHI	22	6	3
2026-09-20	MIN	21	4	3
2026-09-13	CAR	47	3	2
2026-01-18 PO	LAR	27	6	2
2026-01-11 PO	GB	27	6	2
2025-11-28	PHI	5	6	2
2025-11-23	PIT	22	9	3
2025-11-16	MIN	24	6	2
2025-11-09	NYG	27	10	6

Compare books

betmgm · Over 18.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 19.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 19.5 (-121)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Over 19.5 (-130)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

caesars · Over 19.5 (-130)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

novig · Over 19.5 (-133)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

novig · Under 19.5 (+108)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

caesars · Under 19.5 (-103)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 19.5 (-107)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Under 19.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 19.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Under 18.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET