No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 4.8 targets/game. Change: +20%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5+115-150
FD ↗3.5+116-154
CZR ↗3.5+114-150
DK3.5+108-137
Novig ↗3.5+138-150
HRB3.5+115-150
B3653.5+105—
FAN3.5+115-170
PIN3.5+116-154
MGM ↗3.5+120-160
Rec / game3.5
Targets19
Target share13%
Catch %74%
Season 2026: 14 rec · 125 yds · red-zone targets 3 (18% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CLE53171
2026 · W3CIN42300
2026 · W2NE54320
2026 · W1ATL55461
2025 · W18BAL53510
2025 · W17CLE53630
2025 · W16DET44200
2025 · W15MIA53450
2025 · W14BAL3290
2025 · W12CHI33191