Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 16.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/8 under 16.5; 0 pushes. 8 games available; L10 incomplete. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 12.5–16.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Latest five: 1.4 targets/game. 8/10 qualifying games available; two complete five-game windows are needed for a workload change.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus13.5-137-137
FD ↗13.5-114-114
HRB14.5-115—
CZR13.5-120-110
DK14.5-110-114
FAN15.5+100-150
Novig ↗13.5-113-113
PIN12.5-133+101
MGM ↗16.5-120-110
Underdog ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets7
Target share6%
Catch %86%
Yds / rec3.2
Season 2026: 6 rec · 19 yds · red-zone targets 3 (27% of team)
Last 8 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CHI2280
2026 · W3DET3330
2026 · W2GB1181
2026 · W1TEN1000
2025 · W4MIA0000
2025 · W3TB22170
2025 · W2BUF1000
2025 · W1PIT0001