Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 2.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 2.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 2.5–2.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.6 → latest five: 4 targets/game. Change: +150%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	2.5	-122	-106
CZR ↗	2.5	-125	-105
FAN	2.5	-125	-120
DK	2.5	-118	-108
PIN	2.5	-129	-103
B365	2.5	-120	—
MGM ↗	2.5	-130	-105
HRB	2.5	-120	-110
Novig ↗	2.5	-106	-104
PP ↗	2.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	2.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game2.3

Targets17

Target share14%

Catch %53%

Season 2026: 9 rec · 82 yds · red-zone targets 2 (13% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds
2026 · W4	BUF	3	2	15
2026 · W3	JAX	5	1	38
2026 · W2	PIT	2	1	9
2026 · W1	SEA	7	5	20
2025 · W18	MIA	3	2	29
2025 · W17	NYJ	2	1	10
2025 · W16	BAL	2	1	6
2025 · W15	BUF	0	0	0
2025 · W13	NYG	3	3	33
2025 · W12	CIN	1	1	37