Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 28.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 28.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 28.5–34.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 5.8 targets/game. Change: +61.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus28.5-137-137
B36531.5-116-116
FD ↗28.5-114-114
Novig ↗28.5-113-108
HRB28.5-115-115
FAN30.5-105-140
CZR ↗29.5-110-118
DK29.5-112-112
MGM ↗34.5+105-145
PIN28.5-114-116
PP ↗29.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets24
Target share18%
Catch %83%
Yds / rec8.5
Season 2026: 20 rec · 169 yds · red-zone targets 2 (9% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4KC108820
2026 · W3NO33321
2026 · W2LAC43230
2026 · W1MIA76320
2025 · W18KC53470
2025 · W17NYG109890
2025 · W16HOU31100
2025 · W15PHI0000
2025 · W12CLE11140
2025 · W11DAL43130