Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 2.5–3.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 5.2 targets/game. Change: -31.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5-137-137
B3653.5+130—
FD ↗2.5-182+136
CZR ↗3.5+130-170
DK3.5+126-162
HRB3.5+130-170
Novig ↗2.5-186+130
MGM ↗3.5+125-165
FAN3.5+125-195
PIN2.5-182+136
Underdog ↗2.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game3.5
Targets20
Target share17%
Catch %70%
Season 2026: 14 rec · 233 yds · red-zone targets 2 (9% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYJ76940
2026 · W3PHI63440
2026 · W2MIN43430
2026 · W1CAR32520
2025 · W13PHI6280
2025 · W12PIT93530
2025 · W11MIN62410
2025 · W10NYG106861
2025 · W9CIN3000
2025 · W8BAL1071140