No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 4.4 opportunities/game. Change: +22.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-04MIA1584
2026-09-27TB1265
2026-09-13GB010
2025-12-25DET1043
2025-12-21NYG732
2025-12-15DAL1833
2025-12-07WSH010
2025-11-30SEA1344
2025-11-23GB643
2025-11-16CHI763

Compare books

hardrockbet · Over 9.5 (-105)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 10.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 10.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 9.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET