Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 5.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 under 5.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 4.5–5.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6 → latest five: 6.4 targets/game. Change: +6.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-150+115
FD ↗4.5-148+112
Novig ↗4.5-122+104
CZR ↗5.5+133-176
DK4.5-156+122
B3655.5+120—
HRB4.5-150+115
FAN5.5+130-230
PIN4.5-146+110
MGM ↗5.5+125-165
PP ↗5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗5.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game4.3
Targets28
Target share23%
Catch %61%
Season 2026: 17 rec · 202 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4WAS43160
2026 · W3HOU115770
2026 · W2KC97720
2026 · W1BAL42370
2025 · W18HOU44610
2025 · W17JAX52340
2025 · W16SF95650
2025 · W15SEA53131
2025 · W14JAX54230
2025 · W13HOU62440