Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 19.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 19.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 19.5–20.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8 → latest five: 5.2 opportunities/game. Change: -35%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for SF and TB; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	DEN	24	8	5
2026-09-27	ARI	23	6	3
2026-09-20	MIA	27	3	3
2026-09-11	LAR	13	7	6
2026-01-03	CAR	21	2	2
2025-12-28	MIA	16	7	3
2025-12-21	CAR	12	9	5
2025-12-12	ATL	45	12	6
2025-10-20	DET	0	4	0
2025-09-21	NYJ	14	8	4

fanatics · Over 19.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

bet365 · Over 19.5 (-111)Updated Oct 9, 2:12 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 20.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 20.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

betmgm · Over 20.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 20.5 (-121)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

novig · Over 20.5 (-127)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

draftkings · Under 20.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

betmgm · Under 20.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 20.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 20.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

Over lean · Research notes

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