Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 20.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 20.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 20.5–22.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 3.8 targets/game. Change: -5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus22.5-137-137
HRB22.5-115-115
CZR22.5-113-117
DK21.5-112-112
FAN20.5-135-115
PIN22.5-114-114
MGM ↗21.5-120-111
PP ↗21.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets12
Target share11%
Catch %83%
Yds / rec13.5
Season 2026: 10 rec · 135 yds · red-zone targets 1 (9% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CHI32731
2026 · W3DET21210
2026 · W2GB66340
2026 · W1TEN1170
2025 · W18BUF75240
2025 · W17NE54300
2025 · W16NO44250
2025 · W15JAX76530
2025 · W14MIA32240
2025 · W13ATL1000