No clear lean · Research notes

Over 22.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 22.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 6.8 opportunities/game. Change: -27.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	CHI	14	4	3
2026-09-27	DET	32	13	10
2026-09-20	GB	17	7	5
2026-09-13	TEN	31	7	6
2025-11-09	CLE	0	3	0
2025-10-12	DEN	7	8	3
2025-10-05	DAL	25	10	6
2025-09-29	MIA	23	8	6
2025-09-21	TB	17	13	10
2025-09-14	BUF	18	8	4

Compare books

draftkings · Over 22.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Over 22.5 (-113)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 22.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 22.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 22.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 22.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 22.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 22.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET