3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.
2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.
Previous five: 5.8 → latest five: 4 targets/game. Change: -31%.
Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 37.5 | -137 | -137 |
| B365 | 37.5 | -120 | -111 |
| FD ↗ | 37.5 | -114 | -114 |
| Novig ↗ | 37.5 | -108 | -104 |
| FAN | 35.5 | -135 | -110 |
| CZR | 37.5 | -115 | -114 |
| HRB | 37.5 | -115 | -115 |
| MGM ↗ | 34.5 | -115 | -115 |
| PIN | 37.5 | -114 | -114 |
| PP ↗ | 37.5 | DFS projection · pick’em | |
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · W4 | BUF | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| 2026 · W3 | JAX | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 · W2 | PIT | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| 2026 · W1 | SEA | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| 2025 · W18 | MIA | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| 2025 · W17 | NYJ | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| 2025 · W16 | BAL | 7 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| 2025 · W15 | BUF | 3 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| 2025 · W13 | NYG | 6 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| 2025 · W12 | CIN | 10 | 7 | 115 | 1 |