No clear lean · Research notes

Over 23.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 25.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 3.8 targets/game. Change: -26.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	24.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	24.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	24.5	-104	+100
HRB	24.5	-115	-115
FAN	25.5	-115	-135
CZR ↗	24.5	-115	-114
DK ↗	23.5	-113	-111
PIN	24.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	24.5	-111	-118
PP ↗	24.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	24.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets14

Target share14%

Catch %64%

Yds / rec11.7

Season 2026: 9 rec · 105 yds · red-zone targets 2 (12% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CIN	2	2	17	1
2026 · W3	NE	1	1	8	0
2026 · W2	DEN	8	3	40	0
2026 · W1	CLE	3	3	40	0
2025 · W18	TEN	5	3	49	0
2025 · W17	IND	7	4	39	0
2025 · W16	DEN	3	2	18	0
2025 · W15	NYJ	7	4	66	1
2025 · W14	IND	6	3	87	0
2025 · W13	TEN	3	2	28	0