No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

4/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side.

Under 13.5

4/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2 → latest five: 2.6 targets/game. Change: +30%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus12.5-120-110
FD ↗13.5-114-114
Novig ↗13.5-113-113
HRB12.5-120-110
CZR12.5-117-113
DK11.5-112-112
FAN9.5-155—
PIN13.5-114-116
B36512.5-116-116
PP ↗12.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗9.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets3
Target share2%
Catch %33%
Yds / rec10.0
Season 2026: 1 rec · 10 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4SF31100
2026 · W1KC0000
2025 · W18LAC32100
2025 · W17KC43100
2025 · W16JAX33260
2025 · W15GB64290
2025 · W14LV1150
2025 · W13WAS2280
2025 · W11KC0000
2025 · W8DAL1000