Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 4.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6 → latest five: 6.2 targets/game. Change: +3.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	4.5	+120	-155
FD ↗	4.5	+120	-160
Novig ↗	4.5	+127	-149
CZR ↗	4.5	+119	-157
DK	4.5	+114	-145
B365	3.5	-161	—
PIN	4.5	+120	-160
HRB	4.5	+120	-155
FAN	4.5	+125	-195

Rec / game5.3

Targets27

Target share20%

Catch %78%

Season 2026: 21 rec · 214 yds · red-zone targets 2 (14% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DAL	2	2	9	0
2026 · W3	IND	3	3	30	0
2026 · W2	CIN	14	12	140	0
2026 · W1	BUF	8	4	35	0
2025 · W18	IND	4	4	73	0
2025 · W17	LAC	4	3	19	0
2025 · W16	LV	5	5	35	1
2025 · W15	ARI	9	8	76	1
2025 · W14	KC	4	3	22	0
2025 · W13	IND	8	7	55	0