No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 7.2 targets/game. Change: +38.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for IND and LAC; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	+110	-135
FD ↗	3.5	+104	-138
CZR ↗	3.5	+112	-145
FAN	3.5	-105	-150
Novig ↗	3.5	+104	-111
DK	3.5	+111	-141
HRB	3.5	+110	-135
PIN	3.5	+109	-145
B365	3.5	+130	—
MGM ↗	3.5	+100	-135

Rec / game4.3

Targets20

Target share16%

Catch %65%

Season 2026: 13 rec · 100 yds · red-zone targets 3 (21% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W3	HOU	9	6	63	1
2026 · W2	KC	5	1	5	0
2026 · W1	BAL	6	6	32	0
2025 · W18	DEN	13	7	36	0
2025 · W17	HOU	3	1	17	0
2025 · W16	DAL	5	5	44	0
2025 · W15	KC	7	5	36	0
2025 · W14	PHI	3	3	22	0
2025 · W13	LV	5	4	30	0
2025 · W11	JAX	6	4	53	0