No clear lean · Research notes

Over 49.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 51.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.2 → latest five: 5.2 targets/game. Change: -36.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for SF and TB; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	50.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	50.5	-114	-114
FAN	50.5	-115	-125
Novig ↗	50.5	-108	-113
HRB	49.5	-115	-115
DK	50.5	-110	-114
PIN	50.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	51.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	47.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	49.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets24

Target share22%

Catch %71%

Yds / rec12.5

Season 2026: 17 rec · 213 yds · red-zone targets 4 (19% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DEN	8	5	76	0
2026 · W3	ARI	6	3	34	1
2026 · W2	MIA	3	3	54	0
2026 · W1	LA	7	6	49	1
2025 · W18	CAR	2	2	34	0
2025 · W17	MIA	7	3	31	1
2025 · W16	CAR	9	5	31	1
2025 · W15	ATL	12	6	132	0
2025 · W7	DET	4	0	0	0
2025 · W3	NYJ	9	4	33	1