Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 6.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 6.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 6.5–7.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 10 → latest five: 12.2 targets/game. Change: +22%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus7.5+105-135
B3657.5+110—
FD ↗6.5-160+120
Novig ↗6.5-156+113
CZR ↗7.5+111-145
DK7.5+106-135
HRB7.5+110-140
MGM ↗7.5-105-125
FAN7.5+115-170
PIN6.5-160+120
Underdog ↗8.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗7DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game7.8
Targets46
Target share29%
Catch %67%
Season 2026: 31 rec · 303 yds · red-zone targets 12 (36% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CAR118750
2026 · W3NYJ84191
2026 · W2BUF1391422
2026 · W1NO1410672
2025 · W18CHI15111390
2025 · W17MIN138680
2025 · W16PIT94540
2025 · W15LA18131642
2025 · W14DAL96920
2025 · W13GB1000