Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 0.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 0.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 0.5–1.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 0.6 → latest five: 1.6 targets/game. Change: +166.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus1.5+184-240
B3651.5+160—
FD ↗1.5+162-220
CZR ↗1.5+171-230
FAN1.5+165-265
DK0.5-238+184
HRB1.5+170-240
Novig ↗1.5+163-213
Underdog ↗0.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game1.8
Targets7
Target share7%
Catch %100%
Season 2026: 7 rec · 44 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4TEN2261
2026 · W3DAL1102
2026 · W2NO33191
2026 · W1IND11193
2025 · W18PIT1000
2025 · W17GB0004
2025 · W16NE0002
2025 · W15CIN0000
2025 · W14PIT2180
2025 · W13CIN11441