No clear lean · Research notes

Over 39.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 41.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3 → latest five: 5 targets/game. Change: +66.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus41.5-115-115
FD ↗41.5-114-114
Novig ↗41.5-108-111
CZR41.5-118-113
FAN40.5-120-125
DK41.5-109-115
PIN41.5-117-113
HRB41.5-115-115
B36541.5-116-116
MGM ↗39.5-135+100
PP ↗41.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets24
Target share17%
Catch %58%
Yds / rec13.4
Season 2026: 14 rec · 188 yds · red-zone targets 2 (12% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CLE63741
2026 · W3CIN63601
2026 · W2NE65280
2026 · W1ATL63260
2025 · W13BUF1000
2025 · W12CHI3000
2025 · W11CIN21170
2025 · W10LAC32351
2025 · W9IND2140
2025 · W8GB54741