Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 4.5–5.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.4 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: +37%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-152+119
B3654.5-147—
FD ↗4.5-154+116
HRB4.5-145+115
Novig ↗4.5-125+117
CZR ↗5.5+133-176
DK4.5-152+119
MGM ↗4.5-155+115
FAN5.5+135-210
PIN4.5-154+116
Underdog ↗5.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.5
Targets32
Target share20%
Catch %69%
Season 2026: 22 rec · 228 yds · red-zone targets 9 (27% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CAR138841
2026 · W3NYJ43440
2026 · W2BUF76521
2026 · W1NO85480
2025 · W10WAS55530
2025 · W9MIN86971
2025 · W7TB33150
2025 · W6KC65551
2025 · W5CIN65921
2025 · W4CLE43390