Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 2.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 2.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 2.5–2.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 3.2 targets/game. Change: +33.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for ARI and SF; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	+102	-130
B365	2.5	+110	—
FD ↗	2.5	+112	-148
HRB	2.5	+110	-145
Novig ↗	2.5	+122	-141
CZR ↗	2.5	+111	-145
DK	2.5	+102	-130
MGM ↗	2.5	+105	-145
FAN	2.5	+100	-150
PIN	2.5	+112	-148
Underdog ↗	1.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game4.0

Targets14

Target share10%

Catch %86%

Season 2026: 12 rec · 108 yds · red-zone targets 2 (7% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds
2026 · W3	SF	3	2	22
2026 · W2	SEA	3	2	11
2026 · W1	LAC	8	8	75
2025 · W18	SEA	1	0	0
2025 · W17	CHI	1	1	25
2025 · W16	IND	5	3	27
2025 · W15	TEN	3	2	17
2025 · W13	CLE	1	0	0
2025 · W10	LA	1	1	19
2025 · W9	NYG	2	2	34