Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

5 quoted books: 15.5–19.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.4 → latest five: 3.6 opportunities/game. Change: +5.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-05	CAR	57	8	4
2026-09-27	NYJ	49	3	3
2026-09-18	BUF	20	5	2
2026-09-13	NO	0	1	0
2026-01-04	CHI	18	1	1
2025-12-25	MIN	28	4	3
2025-12-21	PIT	20	7	4
2025-12-14	LAR	0	1	0
2025-12-05	DAL	12	3	2
2025-11-27	GB	18	2	2

Compare books

fanduel · Over 15.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 16.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 16.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 16.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanatics · Over 19.5 (+145)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 16.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 16.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 16.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 15.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET