No clear lean · Research notes

Over 14.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 16.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.6 → latest five: 5.6 opportunities/game. Change: -41.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	NYJ	18	9	6
2026-09-29	PHI	12	4	4
2026-09-20	MIN	3	3	1
2026-09-13	CAR	0	2	0
2026-01-18 PO	LAR	23	10	4
2026-01-11 PO	GB	29	15	8
2026-01-04	DET	27	13	10
2025-12-29	SF	36	10	6
2025-12-21	GB	14	5	3
2025-12-14	CLE	24	5	4

Compare books

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Over 16.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 16.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET