Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 25.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 25.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 25.5–29.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2 → latest five: 5.2 targets/game. Change: +160%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for CHI and DET; team changes may affect usage.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	27.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	26.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	26.5	-113	-122
CZR	27.5	-118	-112
DK	27.5	-114	-110
FAN	25.5	-125	-120
MGM ↗	29.5	-111	-118
PIN	28.5	-114	-114
HRB	27.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	29.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets23

Target share19%

Catch %91%

Yds / rec10.5

Season 2026: 21 rec · 220 yds · red-zone targets 4 (17% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NYJ	2	2	6	0
2026 · W3	PHI	7	6	90	1
2026 · W2	MIN	5	5	40	0
2026 · W1	CAR	9	8	84	0
2025 · W18	CHI	3	3	52	0
2025 · W17	MIN	2	1	5	0
2025 · W16	PIT	5	4	62	1
2025 · W15	LA	1	1	20	0
2025 · W12	NYG	2	2	37	0
2025 · W11	PHI	0	0	0	0