No clear lean · Research notes

Over 8.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 1.2 targets/game. Change: -50%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	8.5	-113	-111
B365	8.5	-111	-120
FD ↗	8.5	-114	-114
HRB	8.5	-110	-120
CZR	8.5	-110	-120
FAN	10.5	+115	-170
DK	8.5	-113	-111
Novig ↗	8.5	-111	-111
PP ↗	8.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets6

Target share6%

Catch %83%

Yds / rec8.8

Season 2026: 5 rec · 44 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	TEN	3	2	22	0
2026 · W3	DAL	0	0	0	0
2026 · W2	NO	2	2	12	0
2026 · W1	IND	1	1	10	0
2025 · W12	NYJ	0	0	0	0
2025 · W10	MIN	2	1	12	1
2025 · W9	MIA	2	2	13	0
2025 · W8	CHI	0	0	0	0
2025 · W6	LA	6	5	28	0
2025 · W5	HOU	2	1	9	0