No clear lean · Research notes

Over 39.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 41.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8 → latest five: 4.2 targets/game. Change: -47.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	41.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	41.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	41.5	-113	-113
HRB	41.5	-115	-115
FAN	40.5	-120	-120
CZR ↗	41.5	-108	-122
PIN	41.5	-116	-114
MGM ↗	39.5	-115	-115
CIR	41.5	-110	-110
PP ↗	43.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets15

Target share15%

Catch %87%

Yds / rec12.7

Season 2026: 13 rec · 165 yds · red-zone targets 3 (18% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CIN	4	3	33	0
2026 · W3	NE	8	7	64	1
2026 · W2	DEN	1	1	28	0
2026 · W1	CLE	2	2	40	1
2025 · W18	TEN	6	5	44	0
2025 · W17	IND	9	6	39	0
2025 · W16	DEN	8	4	45	0
2025 · W15	NYJ	7	5	71	0
2025 · W14	IND	10	4	39	1
2025 · W13	TEN	6	6	90	1