No clear lean · Research notes

Over 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Under 13.5

2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 0 → latest five: 2.2 targets/game. Percentage change is undefined because the previous-five average is zero.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus13.5——
FD ↗13.5-114-114
Novig ↗13.5-115-113
CZR13.5-112-117
FAN10.5-140-105
PP ↗13.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets11
Target share9%
Catch %82%
Yds / rec13.7
Season 2026: 9 rec · 123 yds · red-zone targets 2 (14% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4WAS65420
2026 · W3HOU11200
2026 · W2KC33610
2026 · W1BAL1000
2025 · W17JAX0000
2025 · W14JAX0000
2025 · W13HOU0000
2025 · W12KC0000
2025 · W10ATL0000
2025 · W7LAC0000