Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 15.5–15.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 4.4 targets/game. Change: +83.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	15.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	15.5	-114	-114
HRB	15.5	-115	-115
CZR	15.5	-115	-113
FAN	15.5	-120	-125
MGM ↗	15.5	-111	-120
DK	15.5	-113	-111
Novig ↗	15.5	-113	-113
PIN	15.5	-114	-114
Underdog ↗	14.5	DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗	15.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets16

Target share14%

Catch %94%

Yds / rec6.4

Season 2026: 15 rec · 96 yds · red-zone targets 3 (21% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	PIT	7	6	43	1
2026 · W3	CAR	2	2	9	0
2026 · W2	TB	5	5	27	0
2026 · W1	JAX	2	2	17	0
2025 · W16	BUF	6	5	29	0
2025 · W15	CHI	4	3	-4	0
2025 · W14	TEN	3	1	58	0
2025 · W13	SF	3	3	18	0
2025 · W12	LV	0	0	0	2
2025 · W11	BAL	2	0	0	0