Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 6.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 6.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 5.5–6.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 6.8 targets/game. Change: -27.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus6.5-137—
FD ↗6.5+120-160
HRB5.5-150+115
Novig ↗6.5+144-153
CZR ↗6.5+121-165
DK5.5-145+114
PIN6.5+131-175
B3656.5+115—
MGM ↗6.5+115-155
FAN6.5+125-195
Rec / game6.0
Targets31
Target share28%
Catch %77%
Season 2026: 24 rec · 270 yds · red-zone targets 2 (18% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CHI43270
2026 · W3DET13101071
2026 · W2GB75571
2026 · W1TEN76790
2025 · W10CLE3000
2025 · W6DEN83130
2025 · W5DAL106711
2025 · W4MIA86821
2025 · W3TB1310841
2025 · W2BUF84500