No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 4.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6.6 → latest five: 7 targets/game. Change: +6.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-130+100
FD ↗4.5-130-102
Novig ↗4.5-108+102
HRB4.5-130+100
CZR ↗4.5-127+100
DK4.5-134+105
B3654.5-132—
PIN4.5-128-103
FAN4.5-140-105
MGM ↗4.5-125-105
Underdog ↗5.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game4.0
Targets26
Target share27%
Catch %62%
Season 2026: 16 rec · 228 yds · red-zone targets 4 (24% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CIN3170
2026 · W3NE53401
2026 · W2DEN127980
2026 · W1CLE65831
2025 · W18TEN95871
2025 · W17IND1081150
2025 · W16DEN1061451
2025 · W15NYJ33530
2025 · W13TEN31260
2025 · W12ARI75711