Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 13.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 13.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 9.5–13.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 2 targets/game. Change: -28.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus9.5-115-115
B36513.5-116-116
FD ↗9.5-114-114
HRB9.5-115-115
CZR ↗9.5-113-115
FAN10.5+100-150
MGM ↗11.5-110-120
Novig ↗9.5-113+102
PIN9.5-114-114
PP ↗9.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗12.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets10
Target share9%
Catch %60%
Yds / rec4.0
Season 2026: 6 rec · 24 yds · red-zone targets 2 (11% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NE2281
2026 · W3LAC1001
2026 · W2DET3141
2026 · W1HOU43120
2025 · W18NYJ0000
2025 · W17PHI4130
2025 · W16CLE21172
2025 · W15NE3243
2025 · W14CIN22310
2025 · W13PIT33330