No clear lean · Research notes

Over 22.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 25.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.2 → latest five: 3 targets/game. Change: -28.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	23.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	23.5	-114	-114
CZR	23.5	-117	-113
FAN	25.5	-110	-135
Novig ↗	23.5	-113	-113
HRB	23.5	-115	-115
DK	24.5	-113	-111
PIN	23.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	22.5	-120	-110
PP ↗	23.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets12

Target share10%

Catch %75%

Yds / rec12.7

Season 2026: 9 rec · 114 yds · red-zone targets 1 (5% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	LAC	2	1	13	0
2026 · W3	WAS	5	4	46	1
2026 · W2	ARI	2	2	20	0
2026 · W1	NE	3	2	35	0
2025 · W18	SF	3	2	29	0
2025 · W17	CAR	3	1	6	0
2025 · W16	LA	4	3	39	0
2025 · W15	IND	7	5	46	0
2025 · W14	ATL	3	2	35	1
2025 · W13	MIN	4	3	24	0