Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 4.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.4 → latest five: 4.6 targets/game. Change: -14.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-137-137
FD ↗4.5+112-148
DK ↗4.5+109-140
Novig ↗4.5+113-120
CZR ↗4.5+105-135
MGM ↗4.5+105-145
FAN4.5+110-165
Rec / game2.5
Targets7
Target share7%
Catch %71%
Season 2026: 5 rec · 81 yds · red-zone targets 2 (15% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W2TEN2140
2026 · W1WAS54772
2025 · W17BUF6381
2025 · W16WAS33321
2025 · W15LV76702
2025 · W14LAC108780
2025 · W13CHI42270
2025 · W12DAL22200
2025 · W11DET52240
2025 · W10GB64430