No clear lean · Research notes

Over 12.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 12.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.8 → latest five: 4.2 opportunities/game. Change: -46.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-06	NO	2	2	1
2026-09-25	GB	17	2	2
2026-09-20	CAR	4	4	3
2026-09-13	PIT	24	10	8
2026-01-04	NO	12	3	3
2025-12-30	LAR	11	8	5
2025-12-21	ARI	41	11	7
2025-12-12	TB	21	11	8
2025-12-07	SEA	5	2	2
2025-11-30	NYJ	42	7	5

Compare books

fanduel · Over 12.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 12.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 12.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:25 PM ET

caesars · Over 12.5 (-121)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 12.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:25 PM ET

caesars · Under 12.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 12.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Under 12.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET