No clear lean · Research notes

Over 40.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 41.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: +105.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and BAL; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	41.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	41.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	41.5	-111	-106
FAN	40.5	-125	-115
CZR	41.5	-112	-117
PIN	41.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	49.5	-115	—
HRB	41.5	—	-115
PP ↗	41.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets35

Target share32%

Catch %63%

Yds / rec8.6

Season 2026: 22 rec · 190 yds · red-zone targets 6 (43% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	ARI	12	7	66	0
2026 · W3	TEN	5	2	13	0
2026 · W2	LA	10	5	33	0
2026 · W1	DAL	8	8	78	2
2025 · W18	PIT	2	2	32	0
2025 · W17	GB	3	3	27	0
2025 · W16	NE	0	0	0	0
2025 · W14	PIT	6	4	25	1
2025 · W13	CIN	6	5	95	0
2025 · W12	NYJ	3	1	10	0