Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 0.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 0.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 0.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 2.4 targets/game. Change: -14.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus0.5-231+178
FD ↗0.5-225+164
CZR ↗1.5+200-275
FAN1.5+200-340
DK0.5-231+178
HRB0.5-195+145
Novig ↗0.5-213+153
PIN0.5-225+164
B3651.5+180—
Rec / game1.0
Targets7
Target share8%
Catch %57%
Season 2026: 4 rec · 17 yds · red-zone targets 1 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NO1000
2026 · W3GB2290
2026 · W2CAR3130
2026 · W1PIT1150
2025 · W16GB52330
2025 · W15CLE3000
2025 · W14GB3271
2025 · W13PHI32190
2025 · W12PIT1160
2025 · W10NYG4150