Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 2.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 2.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 2.5–2.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.2 → latest five: 3 targets/game. Change: -28.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	-137	-137
FD ↗	2.5	+116	-154
Novig ↗	2.5	+117	-150
HRB	2.5	+110	-145
CZR ↗	2.5	+107	-155
DK	2.5	-101	-127
PIN	2.5	+106	-141
B365	2.5	+125	-141
MGM ↗	2.5	+100	-135
FAN	2.5	+105	-165

Rec / game2.3

Targets12

Target share10%

Catch %75%

Season 2026: 9 rec · 114 yds · red-zone targets 1 (5% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	LAC	2	1	13	0
2026 · W3	WAS	5	4	46	1
2026 · W2	ARI	2	2	20	0
2026 · W1	NE	3	2	35	0
2025 · W18	SF	3	2	29	0
2025 · W17	CAR	3	1	6	0
2025 · W16	LA	4	3	39	0
2025 · W15	IND	7	5	46	0
2025 · W14	ATL	3	2	35	1
2025 · W13	MIN	4	3	24	0