Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 7.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 7.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 7.5–10.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.8 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: +55.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for GB and PIT; team changes may affect usage.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	7.5	-137	-137
FAN	10.5	+130	-205
FD ↗	7.5	-114	-114
CZR	7.5	-109	-120
DK	7.5	-109	-115
HRB	7.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	7.5	-113	-113
PIN	7.5	-114	-114
Underdog ↗	14.5	DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗	7.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets7

Target share5%

Catch %71%

Yds / rec17.0

Season 2026: 5 rec · 85 yds · red-zone targets 1 (4% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	TB	1	1	19	0
2026 · W3	ATL	3	2	16	0
2026 · W1	MIN	3	2	50	0
2025 · W18	BAL	2	1	2	0
2025 · W17	CLE	5	5	18	0
2025 · W16	DET	1	0	0	0
2025 · W15	MIA	2	2	12	1
2025 · W14	BAL	1	0	0	0
2025 · W13	BUF	2	1	6	0
2025 · W12	CHI	3	3	21	0