No clear lean · Research notes

Over 4.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.4 → latest five: 6 targets/game. Change: +11.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5+115-140
FD ↗4.5+116-154
CZR ↗4.5+111-145
FAN4.5+110-170
DK4.5+103-131
HRB4.5+115-140
Novig ↗4.5+113-120
PIN4.5-104-127
Rec / game3.8
Targets23
Target share21%
Catch %65%
Season 2026: 15 rec · 176 yds · red-zone targets 5 (28% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NE87820
2026 · W3LAC3160
2026 · W2DET63380
2026 · W1HOU64500
2025 · W17PHI76350
2025 · W16CLE54340
2025 · W15NE55650
2025 · W14CIN32161
2025 · W13PIT4150
2025 · W12HOU1081100