No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 4.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.2 → latest five: 5.2 targets/game. Change: -36.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for SF and TB; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	4.5	-137	-165
FD ↗	3.5	-180	+134
Novig ↗	3.5	-144	+135
CZR ↗	4.5	+129	-170
HRB	4.5	+125	-165
DK	3.5	-149	+117
PIN	3.5	-179	+133
B365	4.5	+120	-161
FAN	4.5	+135	-210
MGM ↗	4.5	+125	-165
Underdog ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game4.3

Targets24

Target share22%

Catch %71%

Season 2026: 17 rec · 213 yds · red-zone targets 4 (19% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DEN	8	5	76	0
2026 · W3	ARI	6	3	34	1
2026 · W2	MIA	3	3	54	0
2026 · W1	LA	7	6	49	1
2025 · W18	CAR	2	2	34	0
2025 · W17	MIA	7	3	31	1
2025 · W16	CAR	9	5	31	1
2025 · W15	ATL	12	6	132	0
2025 · W7	DET	4	0	0	0
2025 · W3	NYJ	9	4	33	1