No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 5.4 targets/game. Change: +22.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	-135	+105
FD ↗	2.5	-138	+104
CZR ↗	2.5	-137	+105
FAN	3.5	+180	-300
DK	2.5	-144	+113
HRB	2.5	-135	+105
Novig ↗	2.5	-115	-102
PIN	2.5	-128	-104
B365	2.5	-185	—

Rec / game5.0

Targets19

Target share12%

Catch %79%

Season 2026: 15 rec · 141 yds · red-zone targets 2 (13% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	PHI	6	5	67	0
2026 · W3	DEN	11	8	62	1
2026 · W1	SF	2	2	12	0
2025 · W18	ARI	6	5	91	1
2025 · W11	SEA	2	1	23	0
2025 · W10	SF	3	3	33	0
2025 · W9	NO	4	3	13	1
2025 · W7	JAX	6	3	19	0
2025 · W6	BAL	4	4	40	1
2025 · W4	IND	5	2	25	0