No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 5.8 targets/game. Change: +31.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	—	—
B365	3.5	-105	—
Novig ↗	3.5	-126	+117
CZR ↗	3.5	-134	+103
Underdog ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game4.8

Targets24

Target share18%

Catch %79%

Season 2026: 19 rec · 165 yds · red-zone targets 7 (32% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	KC	8	6	68	0
2026 · W3	NO	3	3	37	0
2026 · W2	LAC	7	4	15	0
2026 · W1	MIA	6	6	45	2
2025 · W18	KC	5	3	7	0
2025 · W17	NYG	2	2	13	0
2025 · W16	HOU	2	1	60	2
2025 · W15	PHI	6	4	7	0
2025 · W14	DEN	4	2	8	0
2025 · W13	LAC	8	6	30	0