Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 82.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 82.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 79.5–82.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 10.4 → latest five: 10.8 targets/game. Change: +3.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus80.5-111-113
FD ↗81.5-114-114
Novig ↗81.5+106-122
FAN80.5-120-120
CZR80.5-114-114
HRB80.5-115-115
DK80.5-111-113
MGM ↗82.5-115-115
PIN81.5-111-119
CIR79.5-110-110
PP ↗79.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗79.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets46
Target share31%
Catch %72%
Yds / rec7.3
Season 2026: 33 rec · 242 yds · red-zone targets 9 (32% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYG127310
2026 · W3SF119750
2026 · W2SEA108411
2026 · W1LAC139951
2025 · W18LA87650
2025 · W17CIN1310761
2025 · W16ATL84270
2025 · W15HOU13121342
2025 · W14LA95580
2025 · W13TB98821