Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 1.5–2.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 3.8 targets/game. Change: -26.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus2.5-170+125
FD ↗2.5+134-180
Novig ↗2.5+144-163
CZR ↗2.5+150-197
HRB1.5-170+125
DK1.5-184+143
B3651.5-182—
PIN2.5+144-194
FAN2.5+130-205
MGM ↗1.5-200+150
PP ↗2DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗2.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game2.3
Targets14
Target share14%
Catch %64%
Season 2026: 9 rec · 105 yds · red-zone targets 2 (12% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4CIN22171
2026 · W3NE1180
2026 · W2DEN83400
2026 · W1CLE33400
2025 · W18TEN53490
2025 · W17IND74390
2025 · W16DEN32180
2025 · W15NYJ74661
2025 · W14IND63870
2025 · W13TEN32280