No clear lean · Research notes

Over 11.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 11.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 5.8 opportunities/game. Change: +31.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-04KC2886
2026-09-27NO2233
2026-09-20LAC774
2026-09-13MIA1366
2026-01-04KC653
2025-12-28NYG1122
2025-12-21HOU6021
2025-12-14PHI664
2025-12-07DEN442
2025-11-30LAC886

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caesars · Over 11.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 11.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET